Does this line predict America's next recession?

Views:

341,075

Duration:

4:16

Client:

The Economist

Roles:

Producer/Director, Voiceover

Virtually nothing in economics forecasting is guaranteed. But there's one chart that has a particularly reliable track record of behaving a specific way right before a recession hits the American economy. That chart is the so-called "yield curve", a measure of short- to long-term yields on US Treasury securities. Just before the vast majority of recent recessions, the curve has done something weird: it's 'inverted'.